{"id":177343,"date":"2025-12-09T13:37:28","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T13:37:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ktromedia.com\/?p=177343"},"modified":"2025-12-09T13:37:28","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T13:37:28","slug":"%e4%ba%ba%e5%b7%a5%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd%e7%8e%b0%e7%8a%b6%ef%bc%9a2030-%e5%b9%b4%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c%e6%84%bf%e6%99%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ktromedia.com\/?p=177343","title":{"rendered":"\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u73b0\u72b6\uff1a2030 \u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u613f\u666f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>\uff08\u4f5c\u4e3a\u672c\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u52a0\u5165 <em>\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u79d1\u6280\u8bc4\u8bba<\/em>\u7684\u4e3b\u7f16 Mat Honan \u548c\u603b\u7f16\u8f91 David Rotman \u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u72ec\u5bb6\u5bf9\u8bdd <em>\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5<\/em> \u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u6c83\u7279\u65af (Richard Waters) \u63a2\u8ba8\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5982\u4f55\u91cd\u5851\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u4e1c\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4 12 \u6708 9 \u65e5\u661f\u671f\u4e8c\u4e0b\u5348 1:00 \u76f4\u64ad\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ec5\u9650\u8ba2\u9605\u8005\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/supertopic\/roundtables\/?utm_source=the_algorithm\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/supertopic\/roundtables\/?utm_source=the_algorithm\">\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u6ce8\u518c<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/tag\/the-state-of-ai\/\"><\/a><\/figure>\n<p><strong>\u5a01\u5c14\u00b7\u9053\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u00b7\u5929\u5802\u5199\u9053\uff1a 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\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u6350\u8d60\u8d44\u52a9\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u3002\u8be5\u975e\u8425\u5229\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5728\u56db\u6708\u4efd\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u8f70\u52a8 <a href=\"https:\/\/ai-2027.com\/\">\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd2027<\/a>\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e24\u5e74\u540e\u4e16\u754c\u5c06\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u5b50\u7684\u63a8\u6d4b\u6027\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002 <\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u8bb2\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e00\u5bb6\u540d\u4e3a OpenBrain \u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5931\u63a7\u8fdb\u6b65\uff08\u4efb\u4f55\u76f8\u4f3c\u4e4b\u5904\u7eaf\u5c5e\u5de7\u5408\u7b49\uff09\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u5230\u9009\u62e9\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5192\u9669\u98ce\u683c\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u6216\u5384\u8fd0\u7ed3\u5c40\u3002 Kokotajlo \u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u5408\u8457\u8005\u6beb\u4e0d\u63a9\u9970\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u671f\u671b\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c06\u8d85\u8fc7\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u8fbe 150 \u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5267\u53d8\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u5b83\u9020\u6210\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5929\u5e73\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7aef\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u56e2\u961f <a href=\"https:\/\/knightcolumbia.org\/content\/ai-as-normal-technology\">\u666e\u901a\u6280\u672f<\/a>\uff1aArvind Narayanan \u548c Sayash Kapoor\uff0c\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u4e24\u4f4d\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u5408\u8457\u8005 <em>AI\u86c7\u6cb9<\/em>\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u4ec5\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86 AI 2027 \u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u5176\u57fa\u672c\u4e16\u754c\u89c2\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u524d\u6cbf\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u539a\u91cd\u800c\u5feb\u901f\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u6574\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u5374\u4ee5\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u91c7\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f88\u7f13\u6162\uff1b\u63a5\u53d7\u901f\u5ea6\u8f83\u6162\u3002\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u540c\u3002 <\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u51b5\uff1f ChatGPT \u4e09\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u95ee\u4e16\uff0c\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u8be5\u6280\u672f\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7248\u672c\u5728\u53d6\u4ee3\u5f8b\u5e08\u3001\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5f00\u53d1\u4eba\u5458\u6216\u8bb0\u8005\u65b9\u9762\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u591a\u597d\u3002\u65b0\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u4e0d\u518d\u50cf\u4ee5\u524d\u90a3\u6837\u5e26\u6765\u529f\u80fd\u4e0a\u7684\u9636\u8dc3\u53d8\u5316\u3002 <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uff08\u4f5c\u4e3a\u672c\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u52a0\u5165 \u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u79d1\u6280\u8bc4\u8bba\u7684\u4e3b\u7f16 Mat Honan \u548c\u603b\u7f16\u8f91 David Rotman \u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u72ec\u5bb6\u5bf9\u8bdd \u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5 \u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u6c83\u7279\u65af (Richard Waters) \u63a2\u8ba8\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5982\u4f55\u91cd\u5851\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u4e1c\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4 12 \u6708 9 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\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u751f\u6210\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u8fd1\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u610f\u89c1\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u9635\u8425\u6709\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u672a\u6765\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u524d OpenAI \u7814\u7a76\u5458 Daniel Kokotajlo \u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u6350\u8d60\u8d44\u52a9\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u3002\u8be5\u975e\u8425\u5229\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5728\u56db\u6708\u4efd\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u8f70\u52a8 \u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd2027\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e24\u5e74\u540e\u4e16\u754c\u5c06\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u5b50\u7684\u63a8\u6d4b\u6027\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002 \u8fd9\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u8bb2\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e00\u5bb6\u540d\u4e3a OpenBrain 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